Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -42.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +64 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -37.3 (+26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -34.5 (+29.5) | 152.7 (+47.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -28.3 (+35.7) | 158.3 (+41.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -25.0 (+39.0) | 153.7 (+46.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -31.8 (+32.2) | 154.0 (+46.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#7) | -11.2 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#15) | -1.18 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.83 (#16) | -1.52 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#39) | 0.450 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 58.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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