Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | WRST +270 PRIN -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -2.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -0.5 (+17.5) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -2.4 (+20.4) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -0.7 (+17.3) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -0.2 (+17.8) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#128) | -0.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#54) | 2.45 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#51) | 4.20 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#29) | 0.594 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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