Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -150 VAN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -5.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -2.8 (-4.8) | 147.6 (-3.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -3.6 (-5.6) | 146.4 (-2.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.3 (-3.3) | 147.8 (-3.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.2 (-4.2) | 149.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#40) | 5.7 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#30) | 2.24 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#33) | 4.14 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#17) | 0.545 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 48.6% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 2.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 9.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 37.7% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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