Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -2400 CIT +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -26.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -18.8 (-2.8) | 145.1 (-3.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -19.5 (-3.5) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -21.3 (-5.3) | 145.7 (-3.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -22.7 (-6.7) | 143.2 (-1.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#122) | -18.1 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#44) | -4.08 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#45) | -5.98 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#26) | 0.265 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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