Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +450 TTU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -20.1 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -11.3 (+12.3) | 147.0 (+8.0) | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -12.9 (+13.9) | 146.4 (+8.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -12.8 (+13.8) | 145.7 (+9.3) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -13.8 (+14.8) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 15% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#221) | 17.2 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#211) | 1.30 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#239) | 1.93 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#246) | 0.566 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 58.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 45.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 67.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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