Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1100 FSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.6 (+8.4) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.8 (+7.2) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.7 (+8.3) | 140.2 (+8.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.4 (+8.6) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#27) | 6.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#19) | 0.50 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#23) | 0.74 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#19) | 0.525 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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