Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -230 DAY +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +13 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -8.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.1 (+6.9) | 148.7 (+10.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -5.1 (+7.9) | 148.2 (+10.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.0 (+9.0) | 149.8 (+9.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.8 (+8.2) | 147.8 (+11.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#22) | 6.7 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#29) | 1.80 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.30 (#23) | 2.15 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#71) | 0.614 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 44.5% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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