Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +105 UVM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +9 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -1.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -0.4 (-9.4) | 141.8 (-20.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -0.5 (-9.5) | 145.4 (-24.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -0.5 (-9.5) | 146.7 (-25.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -1.1 (-10.1) | 145.1 (-24.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-4 |
| Home | 7-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#279) | -0.9 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#311) | -0.06 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#284) | -0.12 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#325) | 0.513 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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