Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -700 SUU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -16.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -14.2 (-3.2) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -12.7 (-1.7) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -12.2 (-1.2) | 144.9 (+6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -13.1 (-2.1) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#221) | -15.2 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#238) | -2.40 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#230) | -3.66 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#209) | 0.360 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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