Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +210 OU -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | OU -5.8 (+21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -5.9 (+21.9) | 152.5 (+3.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -5.0 (+21.0) | 151.0 (+5.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -4.9 (+20.9) | 151.1 (+4.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -4.5 (+20.5) | 151.9 (+4.1) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#115) | 10.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#51) | 2.35 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#65) | 3.87 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#87) | 0.559 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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