Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -700 UVA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -12.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.4 (+17.6) | 131.4 (+3.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.2 (+16.8) | 129.8 (+5.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.6 (+17.4) | 130.1 (+4.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -7.1 (+17.9) | 131.3 (+3.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 19-0 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#24) | 0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#54) | 0.94 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#40) | 1.37 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#31) | 0.547 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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