Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -192 SF +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -1.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.1 (-3.1) | 148.4 (-21.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.3 (-3.3) | 145.6 (-18.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -0.1 (-3.1) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.6 (-2.4) | 147.7 (-20.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | 1.2 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#149) | -0.23 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#157) | 0.26 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#125) | 0.491 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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