Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UIC +105 LAS -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +13 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -2.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -2.9 (+15.9) | 150.1 (+28.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -1.8 (+14.8) | 150.1 (+28.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -3.2 (+16.2) | 149.8 (+29.2) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -2.7 (+15.7) | 150.6 (+28.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#173) | 2.9 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#201) | 0.51 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#194) | -0.01 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#280) | 0.547 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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