Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PORT +275 OHIO -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -5.2 (-6.8) | 145.1 (+12.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -6.0 (-6.0) | 147.0 (+11.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -6.1 (-5.9) | 147.9 (+10.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -4.2 (-7.8) | 146.2 (+11.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#315) | -1.8 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#298) | -0.08 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.25 (#325) | 1.00 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#248) | 0.450 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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