Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -175 DRKE +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -6.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -2.0 (-14.0) | 151.6 (-13.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -0.8 (-12.8) | 142.9 (-4.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -1.8 (-13.8) | 145.5 (-7.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -2.0 (-14.0) | 148.5 (-10.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#33) | 4.9 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#20) | 1.85 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#18) | 2.92 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.733 (#10) | 0.569 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 38.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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