Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | USD +900 USC -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +13 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -13.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -9.6 (-3.4) | 156.1 (+18.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -11.2 (-1.8) | 158.5 (+16.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -9.4 (-3.6) | 156.0 (+19.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -9.5 (-3.5) | 156.2 (+18.8) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#279) | 11.5 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#297) | 3.12 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#283) | 4.01 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#348) | 0.671 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 37.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 57.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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