Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STET +750 ECU -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -6.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -6.1 (-0.9) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -5.8 (-1.2) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -6.6 (-0.4) | 144.6 (-9.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -6.0 (-1.0) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#334) | -4.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#355) | -0.75 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.54 (#352) | -1.98 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.316 (#343) | 0.524 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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