Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ND -900 IDHO +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ND -11.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -12.3 (+2.7) | 143.7 (+1.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -9.5 (+5.5) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -9.2 (+5.8) | 143.9 (+1.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -9.9 (+5.1) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#75) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#64) | 0.58 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#64) | 0.51 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#54) | 0.503 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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