Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | FIU +165 NE -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -7.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -6.9 (+4.9) | 144.4 (-26.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -5.9 (+3.9) | 143.8 (-25.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -5.7 (+3.7) | 147.4 (-29.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -6.1 (+4.1) | 144.7 (-26.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#218) | 5.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#327) | 0.93 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#311) | 2.07 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#330) | 0.532 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 54.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.2% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 61.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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