Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USF -120 MTSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +7 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -3.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.3 (-4.7) | 143.5 (+39.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.2 (-5.8) | 147.2 (+35.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.1 (-3.9) | 148.2 (+34.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -2.2 (-4.8) | 145.7 (+37.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#215) | 0.9 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#160) | 1.03 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#178) | 1.84 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#193) | 0.476 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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