Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -950 TEX +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -16.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.5 (-3.5) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -15.1 (-7.1) | 145.1 (-11.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -15.0 (-7.0) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -14.4 (-6.4) | 144.5 (-10.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | CONN 76 – 65 TEX |
| Nov 21, 2023 | CONN 81 – 71 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 81.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#10) | 9.2 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.48 (#6) | 1.03 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.61 (#6) | 1.96 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#11) | 0.473 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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