Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 178.5 Under |
| Money | ALA +142 ARIZ -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +21 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -1.2 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -0.7 (-20.3) | 173.6 (-2.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -3.1 (-17.9) | 167.7 (+3.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -1.7 (-19.3) | 172.1 (-1.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -2.8 (-18.2) | 169.5 (+1.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 74 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 36-3 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 11-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#8) | 21.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#18) | 5.54 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.81 (#15) | 8.27 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#15) | 0.674 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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