Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -700 ILST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -0.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -0.5 (+8.5) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -0.3 (+7.7) | 134.1 (+9.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.7 (+9.7) | 134.0 (+10.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.9 (+8.9) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | 2.3 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#168) | 0.52 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#159) | 1.90 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#70) | 0.390 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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