Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +27 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -22.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -20.1 (+6.9) | 157.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -23.5 (+3.5) | 163.4 (-8.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -18.8 (+8.2) | 158.2 (-3.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -19.9 (+7.1) | 157.4 (-2.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-1 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#14) | 0.5 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#54) | 0.57 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#38) | 0.60 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#36) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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