Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | YSU -250 PRES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +25 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -2.8 (-27.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-45.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -2.2 (-27.2) | 142.9 (-33.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -4.2 (-29.2) | 142.4 (-33.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -2.3 (-27.3) | 144.3 (-35.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -2.0 (-27.0) | 146.0 (-37.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#205) | -4.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#162) | -1.00 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#171) | -1.51 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#164) | 0.423 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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