Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +160 TLSA -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +13 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -9.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -4.8 (-8.2) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.7 (-7.3) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -4.9 (-8.1) | 146.7 (+6.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -4.9 (-8.1) | 143.0 (+10.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | TLSA 65 – 59 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | 11.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#93) | 2.01 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#88) | 3.04 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#79) | 0.596 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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