Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO +215 SBU -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +5 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -8.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -7.8 (+12.8) | 144.4 (+26.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -7.4 (+12.4) | 144.6 (+26.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.4 (+11.4) | 145.3 (+25.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -7.2 (+12.2) | 145.2 (+25.8) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#228) | 4.7 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#206) | 3.31 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#182) | 4.37 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.676 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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