Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USU -410 ILST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | USU -4.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.7 (+1.3) | 141.6 (+19.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.1 (+1.9) | 141.5 (+19.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.3 (+2.7) | 143.2 (+17.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.0 (+3.0) | 143.2 (+17.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#37) | 8.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#36) | 1.12 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#40) | 1.35 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#33) | 0.532 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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