Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | WOF -135 STMN +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -13.1 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -7.3 (+15.3) | 138.6 (+15.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -7.7 (+15.7) | 138.8 (+15.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -7.7 (+15.7) | 133.7 (+20.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -7.9 (+15.9) | 139.3 (+14.7) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#294) | 6.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#321) | 1.60 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#299) | 2.94 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.268 (#361) | 0.598 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.1% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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