Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | CCU -145 IUIN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -0.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -1.6 (+12.4) | 133.5 (-5.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -1.1 (+12.9) | 134.1 (-6.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.4 (+13.6) | 130.7 (-2.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.9 (+13.1) | 135.0 (-7.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#307) | -8.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#330) | -3.07 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.95 (#343) | -4.90 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#264) | 0.369 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.9% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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