Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -225 TULN +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +26 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -14.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -12.4 (+13.6) | 147.6 (+12.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -10.6 (+15.4) | 150.5 (+9.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -10.4 (+15.6) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -10.7 (+15.3) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#79) | -6.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#46) | -0.20 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#58) | -0.95 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#35) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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