Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -900 UL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +20 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -27.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -15.7 (+4.3) | 132.8 (+25.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -16.6 (+3.4) | 132.4 (+25.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -18.6 (+1.4) | 131.4 (+26.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -19.4 (+0.6) | 129.9 (+28.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-12 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#21) | -14.3 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#14) | -2.88 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#10) | -4.24 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#88) | 0.290 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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