Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | JXST +160 TOL -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -8.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.6 (+2.6) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.4 (+3.4) | 151.6 (+10.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.2 (+3.2) | 152.5 (+9.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.8 (+2.8) | 152.6 (+9.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | 8.7 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#182) | 2.20 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#215) | 2.91 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#84) | 0.617 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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