Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MILW +110 SDST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +1 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -1.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -0.6 (+0.4) | 147.4 (+27.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.3 (+1.3) | 144.5 (+30.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -0.1 (+0.9) | 145.0 (+30.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -0.4 (+0.6) | 146.6 (+28.4) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#238) | 1.0 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#244) | -0.50 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#245) | -0.45 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#250) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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