Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1200 LAS +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -15.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -14.8 (-2.8) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -13.1 (-1.1) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -13.2 (-1.2) | 144.4 (+11.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -13.7 (-1.7) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#100) | -6.1 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#167) | -1.45 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -1.93 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#196) | 0.412 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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