Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | JKST +200 NORF -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -13.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -8.9 (-1.1) | 134.3 (+19.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -8.3 (-1.7) | 133.3 (+20.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -8.4 (-1.6) | 133.3 (+20.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.2 (-1.8) | 134.0 (+20.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -18.1 (#359) | -4.7 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#331) | -1.83 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#331) | -2.47 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#271) | 0.426 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 57.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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