Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UK -115 SJU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UK -0.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.0 (+12.0) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -0.2 (+11.8) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -0.7 (+11.3) | 150.5 (-6.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.4 (+11.6) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#16) | 18.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#93) | 2.15 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#70) | 3.49 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.633 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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