Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -800 MRMK +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +39 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -13.3 (+25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -11.3 (+27.7) | 129.3 (-12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -13.5 (+25.5) | 130.4 (-13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -12.6 (+26.4) | 128.6 (-11.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -11.7 (+27.3) | 128.2 (-11.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#148) | -5.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#201) | -0.93 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#204) | -1.17 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#84) | 0.497 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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