Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU +140 LONG -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -0.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.1 (-2.1) | 142.2 (+3.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.0 (-1.0) | 138.3 (+7.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.2 (-1.8) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.4 (-1.6) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | LONG 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 14, 2024 | NCCU 77 – 70 LONG |
| Dec 20, 2023 | NCCU 79 – 70 LONG |
| Nov 18, 2023 | LONG 73 – 66 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#339) | -9.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#346) | -2.11 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.53 (#351) | -2.43 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#290) | 0.396 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.9% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 37.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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