Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PRIN -270 TXST +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -2.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.6 (-2.4) | 137.8 (+25.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -2.2 (-5.2) | 134.7 (+28.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.3 (-2.7) | 136.1 (+26.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.8 (-2.2) | 138.5 (+24.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#214) | -0.3 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#72) | -0.67 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#76) | -1.10 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#121) | 0.408 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 41.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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