Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SCU -1650 LUC +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +2 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SCU -21.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -14.3 (-16.3) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -15.9 (-17.9) | 147.5 (+10.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -16.2 (-18.2) | 146.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -16.1 (-18.1) | 144.2 (+13.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-10 |
| Away | 8-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#64) | -12.3 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#52) | -2.95 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#46) | -3.83 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#27) | 0.343 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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