Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -125 VCU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -2.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.5 (+1.5) | 137.1 (-12.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -2.5 (+0.5) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -2.2 (+0.8) | 135.4 (-10.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.0 (+1.0) | 137.2 (-12.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#49) | 7.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#59) | 0.09 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#47) | 0.51 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#36) | 0.535 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 47.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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