Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +625 GONZ -950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -21.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -16.5 (+7.5) | 153.4 (+19.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.6 (+3.6) | 150.0 (+23.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.2 (+5.2) | 148.1 (+24.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.7 (+6.7) | 151.7 (+21.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#99) | 27.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#121) | 4.54 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#108) | 6.63 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#101) | 0.644 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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