Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO +340 UNCA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -2.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.1 (-5.9) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -4.6 (-3.4) | 151.0 (-15.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.3 (-4.7) | 151.3 (-15.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.0 (-6.0) | 149.7 (-13.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#269) | -3.0 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#269) | 1.31 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#275) | 2.39 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#231) | 0.566 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.3% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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