Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -6500 SOU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +44 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -22.6 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -24.5 (+19.5) | 163.0 (+15.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -20.6 (+23.4) | 163.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -23.5 (+20.5) | 164.7 (+13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -23.7 (+20.3) | 166.5 (+11.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#35) | -5.2 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#60) | -1.35 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#60) | -1.95 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.434 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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