Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ND -2500 ELON +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -5.8 (-12.8) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -5.6 (-12.6) | 144.5 (+16.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.5 (-13.5) | 147.2 (+13.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.2 (-14.2) | 147.0 (+14.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#58) | 12.3 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#11) | 0.53 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.95 (#3) | 1.23 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#20) | 0.451 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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