Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -135 UIC +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -5.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -4.2 (+7.8) | 136.3 (+27.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -3.1 (+8.9) | 132.4 (+31.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -4.1 (+7.9) | 134.5 (+29.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -4.7 (+7.3) | 134.8 (+29.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#185) | -2.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#246) | -1.36 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#221) | -1.36 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.446 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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