Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 176.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -2800 CSUF +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +5 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -16.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -17.9 (-12.9) | 163.5 (+19.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -15.2 (-10.2) | 164.3 (+18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -16.5 (-11.5) | 165.9 (+17.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -15.7 (-10.7) | 168.9 (+14.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#54) | -1.9 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#28) | -0.45 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#39) | -0.19 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#58) | 0.472 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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