Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -1450 UNCA +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +25 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -11.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -13.0 (+12.0) | 146.2 (-27.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -11.0 (+14.0) | 143.6 (-24.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -11.3 (+13.7) | 143.4 (-24.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -11.8 (+13.2) | 144.2 (-25.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | UAB 90 – 85 UNCA |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UAB 102 – 77 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 10-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#111) | -3.1 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | -0.77 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#139) | -0.96 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.443 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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