Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -37.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +38 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -32.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -33.0 (+5.0) | 158.8 (+13.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -25.1 (+12.9) | 160.9 (+11.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -24.6 (+13.4) | 159.9 (+12.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -30.8 (+7.2) | 158.9 (+13.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2023 | MIA 95 – 55 UNF |
| Nov 29, 2020 | MIA 77 – 59 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 89.6 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#29) | -13.0 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#49) | -3.71 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#45) | -5.08 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#71) | 0.376 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 55.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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